Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 59.08%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 18.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Greuther Furth win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
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