SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Heerenveen |
46.4% ( -0.35) | 22.82% ( -0) | 30.78% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 63.81% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.04% ( 0.22) | 36.96% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.85% ( 0.23) | 59.15% ( -0.22) |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.63% ( -0.05) | 16.37% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54% ( -0.09) | 46% ( 0.09) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.3% ( 0.32) | 23.7% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.19% ( 0.46) | 57.82% ( -0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7.02% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 6.35% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.52% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.8% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.63% Total : 46.4% | 1-1 @ 10.1% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.88% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.82% | 1-2 @ 7.28% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.59% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.49% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.92% Total : 30.78% |
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