Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 45.69%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
0.01) 
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