Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 66.6%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 15.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 3-1 (7.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.92%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
