SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Girona had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Girona |
43.5% ( -0.03) | 23.21% ( 0.01) | 33.29% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 63.59% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.24% ( -0.06) | 37.76% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40% ( -0.06) | 60% ( 0.06) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.19% ( -0.03) | 17.81% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.46% ( -0.06) | 48.54% ( 0.06) |
| Girona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.37% ( -0.02) | 22.63% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.74% ( -0.02) | 56.26% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Girona |
| 2-1 @ 8.92% 1-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.45% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.21% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.49% ( -0)Other @ 3.9% Total : 43.5% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.62% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.21% | 1-2 @ 7.68% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.99% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.8% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 3.27% Total : 33.29% |
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