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Premier League | Gameweek 38
May 19, 2024 at 4pm UK
Brentford Community Stadium
NL

Brentford
2 - 4
Newcastle

Janelt (48'), Wissa (70')
Toney (44'), Jensen (45+5'), Wissa (51'), Maupay (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Barnes (21'), Murphy (36'), Isak (38'), Guimaraes (77')
Joelinton (28'), Burn (53'), Krafth (66'), Pope (90+5')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford
Saturday, May 11 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 3-2 Newcastle
Wednesday, May 15 at 8pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 37.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.87%) and 0-2 (5.45%). The likeliest Brentford win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
BrentfordDrawNewcastle United
37.42% (-1.155 -1.16) 23.67% (0.153 0.15) 38.9% (1.004 1)
Both teams to score 62.72% (-0.606 -0.61)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.76% (-0.776 -0.78)39.24% (0.778 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.43% (-0.818 -0.82)61.57% (0.82 0.82)
Brentford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.84% (-0.89800000000001 -0.9)21.16% (0.9 0.9)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.98% (-1.415 -1.42)54.01% (1.417 1.42)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.56% (0.139 0.14)20.44% (-0.137 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.1% (0.221 0.22)52.89% (-0.219 -0.22)
Score Analysis
    Brentford 37.42%
    Newcastle United 38.9%
    Draw 23.67%
BrentfordDrawNewcastle United
2-1 @ 8.28% (-0.118 -0.12)
1-0 @ 6.72% (0.061 0.06)
2-0 @ 5.22% (-0.097 -0.1)
3-1 @ 4.29% (-0.183 -0.18)
3-2 @ 3.4% (-0.13 -0.13)
3-0 @ 2.7% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-1 @ 1.67% (-0.12 -0.12)
4-2 @ 1.32% (-0.089 -0.09)
4-0 @ 1.05% (-0.08 -0.08)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 37.42%
1-1 @ 10.66% (0.14 0.14)
2-2 @ 6.58% (-0.065 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.32% (0.156 0.16)
3-3 @ 1.8% (-0.061 -0.06)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 23.67%
1-2 @ 8.47% (0.148 0.15)
0-1 @ 6.87% (0.275 0.28)
0-2 @ 5.45% (0.241 0.24)
1-3 @ 4.48% (0.097 0.1)
2-3 @ 3.48% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.88% (0.139 0.14)
1-4 @ 1.78% (0.046 0.05)
2-4 @ 1.38% (-0.002 -0)
0-4 @ 1.15% (0.06 0.06)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 38.9%

Read more!
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Form Guide
Last Game: Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford
Saturday, May 11 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brentford 0-0 Fulham
Saturday, May 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Everton 1-0 Brentford
Saturday, April 27 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 1-5 Brentford
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brentford 2-0 Sheff Utd
Saturday, April 13 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-3 Brentford
Saturday, April 6 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 3-2 Newcastle
Wednesday, May 15 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 1-1 Brighton
Saturday, May 11 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Burnley 1-4 Newcastle
Saturday, May 4 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 5-1 Sheff Utd
Saturday, April 27 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 2-0 Newcastle
Wednesday, April 24 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 4-0 Spurs
Saturday, April 13 at 12.30pm in Premier League


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