Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Benfica B had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Benfica B win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Tondela in this match.
0.34) 
-0.12) 
