SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 20.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.86%) and 0-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
20.82% ( 0.77) | 22.98% ( 0.61) | 56.2% ( -1.37) |
| Both teams to score 53.05% ( -0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.42% ( -1.6) | 46.58% ( 1.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.15% ( -1.52) | 68.85% ( 1.53) |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.45% ( -0.13) | 36.55% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.66% ( -0.14) | 73.34% ( 0.14) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.62% ( -1.02) | 16.38% ( 1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.98% ( -1.88) | 46.02% ( 1.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.75% Total : 20.82% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.32) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.98% | 0-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 9.86% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 9.8% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.95% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 5.91% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 2.69% ( -0.21)0-4 @ 2.67% ( -0.2)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.11)1-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.11)0-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.21% Total : 56.2% |
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