Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 51.14%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 23.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
