Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.68%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.83%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
-3.37) 
0.93) 
