Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 62.83%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 16.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.