Still licking their wounds from their defeat against Braga, Vitoria de Guimaraes will head into the weekend looking to pick up a morale-boosting result and end the season on a high. However, Arouca have rock-solid at home of late and we predict that they will do just enough to force a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 43.44%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
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