Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 37.47%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.23) 
