Do not expect the Costa Ricans to have the same amount of time and space on the ball versus the Mexicans like they had on matchday three, as El Tri have dominated the possession battle so far in this competition and have not allowed many clear-cut opportunities.
These sides have plenty of experience to count upon and are both solid defensively, but Mexico have shown a little more consistency and should also have more energy, which is why we are giving them a slight edge this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 70.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 9.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.08%) and 3-0 (10.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (4.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
