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CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals
Jun 16, 2023 at 3am UK
Allianz Stadium
MN

USA
3 - 0
Mexico

Pulisic (37', 46'), Pepi (78')
Robinson (60'), Robinson (63'), Richards (86'), Pulisic (89')
McKennie (71'), Dest (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Uriel (36'), Reyes (59'), Gimenez (60'), Alvarez (85'), Ochoa (86')
Montes (69'), Arteaga (85')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 1-1 Mexico
Thursday, April 20 at 3am in International Friendlies
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1England377
2USA315
3Iran3-33
4Wales3-51
All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Mexico 2-2 Cameroon
Sunday, June 11 at 3am in International Friendlies

We said: USA 2-1 Mexico

We certainly expect a hard-fought and close encounter in this semi-final tie, but USA boast slightly more quality ahead of the showdown in Nevada, given the losses in the Mexican squad, and we anticipate the Stars and Stripes coming out on top on home soil and advancing in their bid to make it two triumphant Nations League campaigns in a row. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.

Result
USADrawMexico
39.32% (0.542 0.54) 28.83% (0.345 0.34) 31.85% (-0.892 -0.89)
Both teams to score 44.88% (-1.172 -1.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.4% (-1.344 -1.34)61.6% (1.34 1.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.56% (-1.009 -1.01)81.44% (1.006 1.01)
USA Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.49% (-0.35000000000001 -0.35)30.51% (0.346 0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.27% (-0.415 -0.41)66.73% (0.41 0.41)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.58% (-1.354 -1.35)35.41% (1.351 1.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.82% (-1.433 -1.43)72.18% (1.429 1.43)
Score Analysis
    USA 39.31%
    Mexico 31.85%
    Draw 28.82%
USADrawMexico
1-0 @ 12.82% (0.51 0.51)
2-1 @ 7.9% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-0 @ 7.61% (0.234 0.23)
3-1 @ 3.13% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-0 @ 3.01% (0.065 0.07)
3-2 @ 1.62% (-0.087 -0.09)
4-1 @ 0.93% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 39.31%
1-1 @ 13.31% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 10.8% (0.53 0.53)
2-2 @ 4.1% (-0.178 -0.18)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 28.82%
0-1 @ 11.21% (0.15 0.15)
1-2 @ 6.91% (-0.231 -0.23)
0-2 @ 5.82% (-0.137 -0.14)
1-3 @ 2.39% (-0.173 -0.17)
0-3 @ 2.01% (-0.125 -0.13)
2-3 @ 1.42% (-0.117 -0.12)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 31.85%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: USA 1-1 Mexico
Thursday, April 20 at 3am in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 1-0 El Salvador
Tuesday, March 28 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Grenada 1-7 USA
Saturday, March 25 at 12am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 0-0 Colombia
Sunday, January 29 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 1-2 Serbia
Thursday, January 26 at 3am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Netherlands 3-1 USA
Saturday, December 3 at 3pm in World Cup
Last Game: Mexico 2-2 Cameroon
Sunday, June 11 at 3am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 2-0 Guatemala
Thursday, June 8 at 3am in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 1-1 Mexico
Thursday, April 20 at 3am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 2-2 Jamaica
Monday, March 27 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Suriname 0-2 Mexico
Friday, March 24 at 12am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Mexico
Wednesday, November 30 at 7pm in World Cup


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