SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | USA | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Wales | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
| Result | ||
| USA | Draw | Mexico |
39.32% ( 0.54) | 28.83% ( 0.34) | 31.85% ( -0.89) |
| Both teams to score 44.88% ( -1.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.4% ( -1.34) | 61.6% ( 1.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.56% ( -1.01) | 81.44% ( 1.01) |
| USA Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.49% ( -0.35) | 30.51% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.27% ( -0.41) | 66.73% ( 0.41) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.58% ( -1.35) | 35.41% ( 1.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.82% ( -1.43) | 72.18% ( 1.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| USA | Draw | Mexico |
| 1-0 @ 12.82% ( 0.51) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 3.13% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.28% Total : 39.31% | 1-1 @ 13.31% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.53)2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.82% | 0-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.08% Total : 31.85% |
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