Back in front of their home fans for the first time since an inspiring World Cup performance - and just a matter of months before the women's World Cup is held on the continent - Australia should be able to get the better of an Ecuador team stripped of their talismanic captain Valencia.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 42.74%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 28.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.65%) and 2-1 (8.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.
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