SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Senegal | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Qatar | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Senegal | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Qatar | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 39.37%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 32.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 1-0 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Senegal |
32.13% ( 0.05) | 28.5% ( 0.01) | 39.37% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 45.86% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.58% ( -0.03) | 60.42% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.44% ( -0.02) | 80.55% ( 0.02) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.41% ( 0.02) | 34.59% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.69% ( 0.03) | 71.31% ( -0.03) |
| Senegal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.11% ( -0.06) | 29.89% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.01% ( -0.07) | 65.99% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Senegal |
| 1-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.49% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0)Other @ 2.23% Total : 32.12% | 1-1 @ 13.25% 0-0 @ 10.33% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.48% | 0-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.54% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.49% Total : 39.37% |
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