Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 63.76%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Australia had a probability of 14.37%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.81%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for an Australia win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.
