SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Senegal | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Senegal | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 51.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 22.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Netherlands | Draw | Ecuador |
51.85% ( -0.46) | 25.5% ( -0.35) | 22.65% ( 0.81) |
| Both teams to score 47.89% ( 1.9) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.35% ( 2.01) | 54.65% ( -2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.02% ( 1.64) | 75.98% ( -1.63) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.9% ( 0.63) | 21.1% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.07% ( 0.96) | 53.93% ( -0.96) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.7% ( 1.95) | 39.3% ( -1.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.99% ( 1.77) | 76.01% ( -1.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Netherlands | Draw | Ecuador |
| 1-0 @ 12.9% ( -0.78) 2-0 @ 10.03% ( -0.41)2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 5.21% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 4.86% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.19)4-0 @ 2.03% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.89% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.29% Total : 51.84% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.29% ( -0.67)2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0.28)Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.26)0-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.09)Other @ 1.42% Total : 22.65% |
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