Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botswana win with a probability of 34.43%. A win for Eswatini had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 31.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botswana win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.77%) and 2-1 (6.65%). The likeliest Eswatini win was 0-1 (13.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botswana would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
