Tunisia are yet to concede in five straight home matches, and we expect that run to continue given Botswana's struggles in front of goal. We can also see the hosts cruising to a routine victory come the end of the 90 minutes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 60.65%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Botswana had a probability of 14.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.9%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.3%), while for a Botswana win it was 0-1 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.03) 
