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Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Jun 17, 2023 at 5pm UK
Francistown Stadium
LN
Botswana
1 - 0
Libya
Mohutsiwa (45')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Bin Amir (23'), Taqtaq (81'), Ellafi (90+5')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Botswana 2-3 Eq Guinea
Tuesday, March 28 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Libya 0-1 Tunisia
Tuesday, March 28 at 9pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Botswana 1-1 Libya

Botswana can afford to take their foot off the gas a bit here, while Libya have little margin for error as they look to make up a near-unassailable margin. That said, we expect a keenly-contested affair with honours even in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botswana win with a probability of 35.1%. A win for Libya had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botswana win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.92%) and 2-1 (6.79%). The likeliest Libya win was 0-1 (13.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Botswana in this match.

Result
BotswanaDrawLibya
35.1% (-0.478 -0.48) 30.99% (0.442 0.44) 33.9% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Both teams to score 39.58% (-1.102 -1.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
31.91% (-1.288 -1.29)68.09% (1.284 1.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
14% (-0.863 -0.86)85.99% (0.861 0.86)
Botswana Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.34% (-1.042 -1.04)36.66% (1.039 1.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.55% (-1.06 -1.06)73.44% (1.056 1.06)
Libya Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.49% (-0.701 -0.7)37.5% (0.697 0.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.71% (-0.695 -0.7)74.28% (0.69 0.69)
Score Analysis
    Botswana 35.09%
    Libya 33.9%
    Draw 30.99%
BotswanaDrawLibya
1-0 @ 13.79% (0.26 0.26)
2-0 @ 6.92% (-0.063000000000001 -0.06)
2-1 @ 6.79% (-0.192 -0.19)
3-0 @ 2.32% (-0.088 -0.09)
3-1 @ 2.27% (-0.132 -0.13)
3-2 @ 1.11% (-0.087 -0.09)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 35.09%
0-0 @ 13.74% (0.64 0.64)
1-1 @ 13.53% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.33% (-0.159 -0.16)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 30.99%
0-1 @ 13.48% (0.38 0.38)
1-2 @ 6.64% (-0.124 -0.12)
0-2 @ 6.61% (0.063 0.06)
1-3 @ 2.17% (-0.083 -0.08)
0-3 @ 2.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.09% (-0.074 -0.07)
Other @ 1.75%
Total : 33.9%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Botswana 2-3 Eq Guinea
Tuesday, March 28 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Eq Guinea 2-0 Botswana
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Angola 1-0 Botswana
Thursday, November 17 at 1pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: South Africa 1-0 Botswana
Tuesday, September 27 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: South Africa 2-1 Botswana
Sunday, July 17 at 9am in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Botswana 2-0 Eswatini
Friday, July 15 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Libya 0-1 Tunisia
Tuesday, March 28 at 9pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Tunisia 3-0 Libya
Friday, March 24 at 8.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Libya 3-1 Ethiopia
Saturday, January 21 at 7pm in African Nations Championship
Last Game: Mozambique 3-2 Libya
Tuesday, January 17 at 4pm in African Nations Championship
Last Game: Algeria 1-0 Libya
Friday, January 13 at 7pm in African Nations Championship
Last Game: Libya 2-1 Tanzania
Tuesday, September 27 at 6pm in International Friendlies

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