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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 39.07%. A win for Wales had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.18%). The likeliest Wales win was 1-0 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wales | Draw | Croatia |
33.38% ( 0.13) | 27.56% ( -0.03) | 39.07% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 48.87% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.21% ( 0.13) | 56.79% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.27% ( 0.1) | 77.73% ( -0.1) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.17% ( 0.15) | 31.83% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.73% ( 0.18) | 68.27% ( -0.18) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.7% ( -0) | 28.31% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.97% ( -0) | 64.03% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wales | Draw | Croatia |
| 1-0 @ 10.31% 2-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.84% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.25% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.79% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 33.38% | 1-1 @ 13.01% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.01% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.7% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.55% | 0-1 @ 11.37% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 8.22% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.18% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.46% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.09% 0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 39.06% |
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