SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 22.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.8%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Bolivia win it was 1-0 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.
| Result | ||
| Bolivia | Draw | Ecuador |
22.28% ( -1.38) | 24.35% ( -0.55) | 53.36% ( 1.93) |
| Both teams to score 50.79% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.42% ( 0.88) | 50.58% ( -0.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.5% ( 0.77) | 72.5% ( -0.77) |
| Bolivia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.63% ( -0.8) | 37.37% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.84% ( -0.8) | 74.15% ( 0.8) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.1% ( 1.11) | 18.89% ( -1.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.62% ( 1.82) | 50.38% ( -1.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolivia | Draw | Ecuador |
| 1-0 @ 6.95% ( -0.41) 2-1 @ 5.7% ( -0.26)2-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.28)3-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.12)Other @ 1.66% Total : 22.28% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.26)2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.96% Total : 24.35% | 0-1 @ 11.76% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.8% ( 0.33)1-2 @ 9.65% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 5.45% ( 0.36)1-3 @ 5.36% ( 0.25)2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 2.27% ( 0.22)1-4 @ 2.23% ( 0.18)2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.1% Total : 53.36% |
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