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World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 13, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Hernando Siles
EN

Bolivia
1 - 2
Ecuador

Ramallo (83')
Cuellar (90')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Paez (45'), Rodriguez (90+6')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Uruguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Bolivia 1-2 Ecuador

While we expect Bolivia to be competitive, with their opening two defeats coming against unenviable opposition, Ecuador boast the stronger squad and have a degree of momentum on their side, and we fancy them to get over the line in La Paz and make it back-to-back qualifying wins to get their points tally into the positive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 22.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.8%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Bolivia win it was 1-0 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.

Result
BoliviaDrawEcuador
22.28% (-1.379 -1.38) 24.35% (-0.554 -0.55) 53.36% (1.931 1.93)
Both teams to score 50.79% (0.056999999999995 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.42% (0.883 0.88)50.58% (-0.885 -0.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.5% (0.773 0.77)72.5% (-0.77499999999999 -0.77)
Bolivia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.63% (-0.801 -0.8)37.37% (0.798 0.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.84% (-0.798 -0.8)74.15% (0.79600000000001 0.8)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.1% (1.111 1.11)18.89% (-1.113 -1.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.62% (1.815 1.82)50.38% (-1.819 -1.82)
Score Analysis
    Bolivia 22.28%
    Ecuador 53.36%
    Draw 24.35%
BoliviaDrawEcuador
1-0 @ 6.95% (-0.409 -0.41)
2-1 @ 5.7% (-0.256 -0.26)
2-0 @ 3.42% (-0.281 -0.28)
3-1 @ 1.87% (-0.127 -0.13)
3-2 @ 1.56% (-0.049 -0.05)
3-0 @ 1.12% (-0.119 -0.12)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 22.28%
1-1 @ 11.58% (-0.26 -0.26)
0-0 @ 7.06% (-0.255 -0.26)
2-2 @ 4.75% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 24.35%
0-1 @ 11.76% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.8% (0.329 0.33)
1-2 @ 9.65% (0.121 0.12)
0-3 @ 5.45% (0.364 0.36)
1-3 @ 5.36% (0.248 0.25)
2-3 @ 2.64% (0.067 0.07)
0-4 @ 2.27% (0.224 0.22)
1-4 @ 2.23% (0.176 0.18)
2-4 @ 1.1% (0.065 0.07)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 53.36%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Brazil 5-1 Bolivia
Saturday, September 9 at 1.45am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Bolivia 1-2 Panama
Sunday, August 27 at 9pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Bolivia 0-0 Chile
Wednesday, June 21 at 1am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 1-0 Bolivia
Sunday, June 18 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Bolivia
Tuesday, March 28 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Uruguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Ecuador
Friday, September 8 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Costa Rica
Wednesday, June 21 at 1.15am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 1-0 Bolivia
Sunday, June 18 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Australia 1-2 Ecuador
Tuesday, March 28 at 9.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Australia 3-1 Ecuador
Friday, March 24 at 9am in International Friendlies


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