SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 45.34%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Uruguay had a probability of 25.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.03%), while for a Uruguay win it was 0-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Uruguay |
45.34% ( -0.24) | 29.23% ( 0.04) | 25.43% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 40.79% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.89% ( -0.02) | 65.11% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.03% ( -0.02) | 83.97% ( 0.02) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.13% ( -0.14) | 28.87% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.27% ( -0.17) | 64.74% ( 0.18) |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.35% ( 0.17) | 42.65% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21% ( 0.14) | 79% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Uruguay |
| 1-0 @ 15.29% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.5% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.46% Total : 45.33% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 12.31% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.43% Total : 29.22% | 0-1 @ 10.49% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.09% Total : 25.43% |
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