SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Italy | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Malta | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 0-1 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | Ukraine |
39.33% ( -4.93) | 28.35% ( 0.98) | 32.32% ( 3.94) |
| Both teams to score 46.32% ( -1.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.13% ( -2.22) | 59.87% ( 2.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.86% ( -1.73) | 80.14% ( 1.72) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.35% ( -3.75) | 29.64% ( 3.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.31% ( -4.8) | 65.69% ( 4.79) |
| Ukraine Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.84% ( 1.78) | 34.16% ( -1.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.14% ( 1.87) | 70.85% ( -1.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Italy | Draw | Ukraine |
| 1-0 @ 12.31% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0.65)2-0 @ 7.49% ( -1.01)3-1 @ 3.26% ( -0.65)3-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.79)3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.25)4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.33)4-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.37)Other @ 1.53% Total : 39.33% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( 0.36) 0-0 @ 10.12% ( 0.81)2-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.34% | 0-1 @ 10.87% ( 1.34) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.52)0-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.97)1-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.3)0-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.43)2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.32% Total : 32.31% |
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