SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Papua New Guinea win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 33.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Papua New Guinea win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 1-2 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Papua New Guinea | Draw | Vanuatu |
42.02% ( 0.74) | 24.45% ( 0.04) | 33.53% ( -0.78) |
| Both teams to score 59.12% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.37% ( -0.4) | 43.63% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.97% ( -0.4) | 66.02% ( 0.4) |
| Papua New Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.13% ( 0.17) | 20.87% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.42% ( 0.26) | 53.57% ( -0.26) |
| Vanuatu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.72% ( -0.64) | 25.28% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.96% ( -0.89) | 60.04% ( 0.9) |
| Score Analysis |
| Papua New Guinea | Draw | Vanuatu |
| 2-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.19)2-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0)Other @ 2.74% Total : 42.02% | 1-1 @ 11.36% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.44% | 1-2 @ 7.82% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 7.26% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.59% Total : 33.53% |
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