SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Guatemala | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Cuba | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 39%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Japan | Draw | Canada |
39% ( -0.15) | 27.91% ( 0.04) | 33.09% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 47.77% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.85% ( -0.12) | 58.15% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.19% ( -0.09) | 78.81% ( 0.09) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71% ( -0.15) | 29% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.1% ( -0.18) | 64.89% ( 0.18) |
| Canada Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.27% ( 0.02) | 32.72% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.72% ( 0.02) | 69.28% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Japan | Draw | Canada |
| 1-0 @ 11.74% 2-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.67% Total : 38.99% | 1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.49% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.91% | 0-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0)Other @ 2.62% Total : 33.08% |
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