SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 63.21%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Peru had a probability of 13.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.23%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Japan | Draw | Peru |
63.21% ( 19.25) | 23.56% ( 1.1) | 13.24% ( -20.35) |
| Both teams to score 37.25% ( -29.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.09% ( -25.99) | 59.92% ( 25.99) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.83% ( -24.39) | 80.18% ( 24.39) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.28% ( -2.62) | 18.73% ( 2.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.91% ( -4.59) | 50.1% ( 4.59) |
| Peru Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.83% ( -33.5) | 54.18% ( 33.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.62% ( -34.11) | 87.38% ( 34.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Japan | Draw | Peru |
| 1-0 @ 16.99% ( 10.91) 2-0 @ 14.23% ( 8.68)2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 7.95% ( 4.57)3-1 @ 4.87% ( -0.46)4-0 @ 3.33% ( 1.79)4-1 @ 2.04% ( -0.39)3-2 @ 1.49% ( -2.71)5-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.55)Other @ 2.45% Total : 63.19% | 1-1 @ 10.41% ( 0.83) 0-0 @ 10.14% ( 6.81)2-2 @ 2.67% ( -4.22)Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.55% | 0-1 @ 6.22% ( 0.97) 1-2 @ 3.19% ( -4.36)0-2 @ 1.91% ( -2.23)Other @ 1.92% Total : 13.24% |
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