SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 61.75%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for El Salvador had a probability of 15.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.82%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a El Salvador win it was 0-1 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Japan | Draw | El Salvador |
61.75% ( 0.08) | 23.05% ( -0.02) | 15.2% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 42.78% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.03% ( -0.04) | 54.97% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.76% ( -0.03) | 76.24% ( 0.03) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.58% ( 0.02) | 17.42% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.13% ( 0.03) | 47.87% ( -0.02) |
| El Salvador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.8% ( -0.11) | 48.2% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.62% ( -0.08) | 83.38% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Japan | Draw | El Salvador |
| 1-0 @ 14.67% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 12.82% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.38% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 3.21% Total : 61.75% | 1-1 @ 10.71% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.4% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.53% Total : 23.05% | 0-1 @ 6.13% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.98% Total : 15.2% |
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