SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Japan had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Japan win was 0-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Germany | Draw | Japan |
44.05% ( 1.74) | 25.17% ( -0.08) | 30.77% ( -1.66) |
| Both teams to score 55.5% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.12% ( -0.25) | 47.87% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.94% ( -0.23) | 70.05% ( 0.23) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.27% ( 0.7) | 21.73% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.1% ( 1.07) | 54.89% ( -1.07) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.9% ( -1.21) | 29.09% ( 1.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.98% ( -1.52) | 65.01% ( 1.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Germany | Draw | Japan |
| 1-0 @ 9.65% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 9.09% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.38)3-1 @ 4.63% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.27)3-2 @ 2.86% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.42% Total : 44.05% | 1-1 @ 11.91% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.61% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.27)0-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.28)1-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.19)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.54% Total : 30.77% |
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