SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Uruguay | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Chile | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Japan | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 4 | Ecuador | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 47.41%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for USA had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.21%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a USA win it was 0-1 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Japan | Draw | USA |
47.41% ( 0.47) | 26.79% ( -0.37) | 25.8% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 47.32% ( 0.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.05% ( 1.26) | 56.95% ( -1.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.14% ( 1) | 77.86% ( -1) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.95% ( 0.78) | 24.05% ( -0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.68% ( 1.1) | 58.32% ( -1.1) |
| USA Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.3% ( 0.62) | 37.7% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.53% ( 0.6) | 74.47% ( -0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Japan | Draw | USA |
| 1-0 @ 12.91% ( -0.34) 2-0 @ 9.21% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.51% Total : 47.4% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 9.07% ( -0.45)2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.74% Total : 26.79% | 0-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 1.67% Total : 25.8% |
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