SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaysia win with a probability of 90.57%. A draw had a probability of 7.1% and a win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 2.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaysia win was 3-0 with a probability of 14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.5%) and 4-0 (11.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.35%), while for a Papua New Guinea win it was 0-1 (1%). The actual scoreline of 10-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malaysia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malaysia | Draw | Papua New Guinea |
90.57% ( 46.61) | 7.06% ( -15.41) | 2.38% ( -31.2) |
| Both teams to score 34.96% ( -31.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.28% ( 7.21) | 26.72% ( -7.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.87% ( 8.65) | 47.13% ( -8.65) |
| Malaysia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.53% ( 12.63) | 3.47% ( -12.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 84.87% ( 30.37) | 15.13% ( -30.37) |
| Papua New Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 36.22% ( -43.1) | 63.78% ( 43.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 7.54% ( -39.2) | 92.46% ( 39.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malaysia | Draw | Papua New Guinea |
| 3-0 @ 14% ( 10.62) 2-0 @ 12.5% ( 6.95)4-0 @ 11.76% ( 10.22)5-0 @ 7.91% ( 7.35)1-0 @ 7.44% ( 1.36)3-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.97)2-1 @ 5.62% ( -3.13)4-1 @ 5.29% ( 2.86)6-0 @ 4.43% ( 4.26)5-1 @ 3.56% ( 2.67)7-0 @ 2.13% ( 2.08)6-1 @ 1.99% ( 1.72)3-2 @ 1.42% ( -2.78)4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.73)7-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.89)Other @ 4.06% Total : 90.55% | 1-1 @ 3.35% ( -6.24) 0-0 @ 2.21% ( -1.12)2-2 @ 1.26% ( -5.63)Other @ 0.23% Total : 7.06% | 0-1 @ 1% ( -4.25) Other @ 1.38% Total : 2.38% |
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