SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
| Current League B Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Saint Lucia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Guadeloupe | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Sint Maarten | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Kitts and Nevis win with a probability of 61.36%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 16.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Kitts and Nevis win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.39%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Marino | Draw | Saint Kitts and Nevis |
16.79% ( 0.17) | 21.85% ( 0.12) | 61.36% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 49.51% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.3% ( -0.19) | 47.7% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.11% ( -0.18) | 69.9% ( 0.18) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.28% ( 0.1) | 41.72% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.81% ( 0.08) | 78.2% ( -0.08) |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.96% ( -0.15) | 15.04% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.47% ( -0.29) | 43.54% ( 0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Marino | Draw | Saint Kitts and Nevis |
| 1-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.79% Total : 16.79% | 1-1 @ 10.39% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.28% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.88% Total : 21.85% | 0-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 11.26% ( -0.03)1-2 @ 9.84% ( -0)0-3 @ 7.11% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 6.22% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.37% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.94% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.28% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.34% Total : 61.36% |
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