Although the Venezuelans play with much less fear in friendlies than games that count, the Green Falcons are in an element they know well and should benefit from the home crowd and an environment they are comfortable in, so we believe they will have the edge on Friday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 39.31%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 32.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 0-1 (11.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
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