Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 80.63%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Vanuatu had a probability of 7.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.35%) and 1-2 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.69%), while for a Vanuatu win it was 2-1 (2.19%).