SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Papua New Guinea win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Papua New Guinea win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 1-2 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Papua New Guinea | Draw | New Caledonia |
42.12% ( 0.15) | 24.48% ( -0.05) | 33.4% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 58.97% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.19% ( 0.19) | 43.81% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.81% ( 0.18) | 66.19% ( -0.18) |
| Papua New Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.1% ( 0.15) | 20.9% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.39% ( 0.23) | 53.61% ( -0.23) |
| New Caledonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.56% ( 0.03) | 25.44% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.73% ( 0.04) | 60.26% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Papua New Guinea | Draw | New Caledonia |
| 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.32% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.52% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.73% Total : 42.12% | 1-1 @ 11.39% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.32% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.48% | 1-2 @ 7.8% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.22% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 2.56% Total : 33.4% |
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