SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Guatemala had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Guatemala win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Venezuela in this match.
| Result | ||
| Venezuela | Draw | Guatemala |
41.56% ( 2.05) | 28.04% ( 0.98) | 30.4% ( -3.02) |
| Both teams to score 46.58% ( -3.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.75% ( -4.37) | 59.25% ( 4.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.34% ( -3.49) | 79.66% ( 3.49) |
| Venezuela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.92% ( -0.93) | 28.08% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.26% ( -1.2) | 63.74% ( 1.2) |
| Guatemala Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.77% ( -4.4) | 35.23% ( 4.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.01% ( -4.88) | 71.98% ( 4.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Venezuela | Draw | Guatemala |
| 1-0 @ 12.56% ( 1.65) 2-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.87)3-1 @ 3.53% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.29)3-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.3)4-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.76% Total : 41.56% | 1-1 @ 13.1% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 9.89% ( 1.52)2-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.58)Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.03% | 0-1 @ 10.31% ( 0.46) 1-2 @ 6.84% ( -0.72)0-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.41)1-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.59)0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.4)2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.42)Other @ 2.1% Total : 30.39% |
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