Although they suffered a surprise cup defeat in midweek, Gamba Osaka have won their last two home league games, and we think that they will claim a narrow victory over a Tokyo side who have lost three of their previous four away matches in the top flight. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for FC Tokyo had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest FC Tokyo win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gamba Osaka would win this match.

Result
Gamba Osaka	Draw	FC Tokyo
43.81% ( -0.5)	27.56% ( 0.12)	28.63% ( 0.38)

Both teams to score 47.07% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.78% (

-0.26)

58.21% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.14% (

-0.2)

78.86% (

0.2)

Gamba Osaka Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.6% (

-0.38)

26.39% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.45% (

-0.5)

61.54% (

0.5)

FC Tokyo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.95% (

0.16)

36.04% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.17% (

0.16)

72.82% (

-0.17)

Score Analysis

Gamba Osaka 43.81%

FC Tokyo 28.63%

Draw 27.56%

Gamba Osaka	Draw	FC Tokyo
1-0 @ 12.67% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.61% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 8.44% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.04% Total : 43.81%	1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.56%	0-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 6.6% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 28.63%