Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Jubilo Iwata had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (8.05%). The likeliest Jubilo Iwata win was 1-0 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gamba Osaka would win this match.
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