Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Nagoya Grampus had a probability of 32.11% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Nagoya Grampus win was 0-1 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gamba Osaka would win this match.
-0.11) 
0.14) 
