J1 League | Gameweek 19
Jul 1, 2023 at 11am UK
Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)
We said: Sagan Tosu 1-1 Urawa Red Diamonds
While the scorelines that both these sides recorded in their match look impressive on the surface, we can arguably draw a line across those results on the basis that they were playing a team that have been bleeding goals this season.
This looks like a much more even contest, and with both sides protecting a solid record in recent weeks, we feel that chances will be hard to come by and that they will eventually cancel each other out in the end.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Urawa Red Diamonds win with a probability of 46.78%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 26.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Urawa Red Diamonds win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Sagan Tosu win it was 1-0 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Urawa Red Diamonds would win this match.
| Result |
| Sagan Tosu | Draw | Urawa Red Diamonds |
26.55% ( 0.09) | 26.67% ( -0.02) | 46.78% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 48.25% ( 0.13) |
| 43.95% ( 0.14) | 56.05% ( -0.14) |
| 22.87% ( 0.11) | 77.13% ( -0.11) |
| 63.44% ( 0.15) | 36.56% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.65% ( 0.16) | 73.35% ( -0.16) |
| 76.05% ( 0.03) | 23.95% ( -0.03) |
