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J1 League | Gameweek 33
Oct 29, 2022 at 7am UK
Shonan BMW Stadium Hiratsuka

Shonan Bellmare
3 - 0
Sagan Tosu

Machino (7', 21'), Yamamoto (78')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Koizumi (89')
Coverage of the J1 League clash between Shonan Bellmare and Sagan Tosu.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Vissel Kobe 1-0 Shonan Bellmare
Wednesday, October 12 at 11am in J1 League
Last Game: Urawa 2-1 Sagan Tosu
Saturday, October 8 at 7am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shonan Bellmare win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Shonan Bellmare win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (10.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shonan Bellmare would win this match.

Result
Shonan BellmareDrawSagan Tosu
40.46% (-0.316 -0.32) 27.46% (0.138 0.14) 32.07% (0.175 0.17)
Both teams to score 48.82% (-0.36 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.29% (-0.483 -0.48)56.7% (0.481 0.48)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.34% (-0.389 -0.39)77.66% (0.38900000000001 0.39)
Shonan Bellmare Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.52% (-0.399 -0.4)27.48% (0.399 0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.03% (-0.52 -0.52)62.97% (0.519 0.52)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.32% (-0.126 -0.13)32.68% (0.125 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.77% (-0.14 -0.14)69.23% (0.139 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Shonan Bellmare 40.45%
    Sagan Tosu 32.07%
    Draw 27.46%
Shonan BellmareDrawSagan Tosu
1-0 @ 11.59% (0.08 0.08)
2-1 @ 8.38% (-0.062999999999999 -0.06)
2-0 @ 7.49% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.61% (-0.069 -0.07)
3-0 @ 3.23% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.02% (-0.045 -0.05)
4-1 @ 1.17% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.04% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 40.45%
1-1 @ 12.97% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 8.98% (0.165 0.16)
2-2 @ 4.69% (-0.052 -0.05)
Other @ 0.82%
Total : 27.46%
0-1 @ 10.04% (0.148 0.15)
1-2 @ 7.26% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 5.62% (0.065 0.06)
1-3 @ 2.71% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.09% (0.017 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.75% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 32.07%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Vissel Kobe 1-0 Shonan Bellmare
Wednesday, October 12 at 11am in J1 League
Last Game: FC Tokyo 0-2 Shonan Bellmare
Saturday, October 8 at 7am in J1 League
Last Game: Cerezo 1-1 Shonan Bellmare
Saturday, October 1 at 6am in J1 League
Last Game: Shonan Bellmare 0-0 Urawa
Saturday, September 17 at 11am in J1 League
Last Game: Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 Shonan Bellmare
Saturday, September 10 at 10am in J1 League
Last Game: Yokohama 3-0 Shonan Bellmare
Wednesday, September 7 at 11am in J1 League
Last Game: Urawa 2-1 Sagan Tosu
Saturday, October 8 at 7am in J1 League
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 0-1 Kyoto Sanga
Saturday, October 1 at 7am in J1 League
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 1-1 Kashima Antlers
Friday, September 16 at 11am in J1 League
Last Game: Cerezo 2-1 Sagan Tosu
Saturday, September 10 at 11am in J1 League
Last Game: Gamba Osaka 0-3 Sagan Tosu
Saturday, September 3 at 11am in J1 League
Last Game: Kawasaki 4-0 Sagan Tosu
Wednesday, August 31 at 11am in J1 League


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