Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win with a probability of 50.48%. A win for Yokohama F Marinos had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Yokohama F Marinos win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
-0.26) 
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