Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Roma had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.03%) and 0-2 (5.74%). The likeliest Roma win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
