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La Liga | Gameweek 21
Dec 22, 2021 at 8.30pm UK
San Mames
RM

Athletic Bilbao
1 - 2
Real Madrid

Sancet (10')
Vencedor (43'), Garcia (61')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Benzema (4', 7')
Junior (42'), Camavinga (62')

We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-2 Real Madrid

Real Madrid will again be missing some important players for this match, but it is difficult to ignore their recent record against Athletic. Los Blancos have been victorious on their last two league visits to San Mames, and we are backing the league leaders to secure another huge three points here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 63.7%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 15.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.71%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 1-0 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Real Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Real Madrid.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawReal Madrid
15.26%21.04%63.7%
Both teams to score 48.71%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.98%47.03%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.74%69.27%
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.69%43.31%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.45%79.56%
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.92%14.09%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.31%41.7%
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 15.26%
    Real Madrid 63.69%
    Draw 21.03%
Athletic BilbaoDrawReal Madrid
1-0 @ 5.11%
2-1 @ 4.19%
2-0 @ 2.14%
3-1 @ 1.17%
3-2 @ 1.14%
Other @ 1.53%
Total : 15.26%
1-1 @ 10%
0-0 @ 6.1%
2-2 @ 4.1%
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 21.03%
0-1 @ 11.95%
0-2 @ 11.71%
1-2 @ 9.81%
0-3 @ 7.66%
1-3 @ 6.41%
0-4 @ 3.75%
1-4 @ 3.14%
2-3 @ 2.68%
0-5 @ 1.47%
2-4 @ 1.31%
1-5 @ 1.23%
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 63.69%

Read more!
Read more!


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