Atletico will be determined to bounce back from their Champions League disappointment, and we are expecting the home side to triumph this weekend. That said, Espanyol will be the fresher of the two teams and are more than capable of making it an uncomfortable 90 minutes for Simeone's team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 65.96%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 13.71%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.29%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Espanyol
65.96%	20.32%	13.71%

Both teams to score 47.09%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.88%

47.12%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.64%

69.36%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.56%

13.43%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.6%

40.4%

Espanyol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.39%

45.6%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.59%

81.41%

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 65.95%

Espanyol 13.71%

Draw 20.32%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Espanyol
2-0 @ 12.34% 1-0 @ 12.29% 2-1 @ 9.69% 3-0 @ 8.26% 3-1 @ 6.49% 4-0 @ 4.15% 4-1 @ 3.26% 3-2 @ 2.55% 5-0 @ 1.66% 5-1 @ 1.31% 4-2 @ 1.28% Other @ 2.69% Total : 65.95%	1-1 @ 9.66% 0-0 @ 6.13% 2-2 @ 3.81% Other @ 0.74% Total : 20.32%	0-1 @ 4.81% 1-2 @ 3.79% 0-2 @ 1.89% 2-3 @ 1% 1-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.24% Total : 13.71%