Almeria are having an impressive season, but their away form has been so disappointing. Indeed, the promoted outfit are yet to win a single match on their travels, so it is difficult to back them to beat a strong Rayo outfit. It would not be a shock to see a draw here, but we are just backing Rayo to secure all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 21.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
-0.23) 
0.04) 
