Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 37.78%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.09) 
