This is a really tough match to call, as Rayo have only lost twice at home in the league this season, while Real Sociedad have won six of their eight La Liga fixtures on their travels. It would not be a surprise to see an away win, but this fixture has often produced draws in recent seasons, and we are backing a 1-1 here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 55.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 20.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.75%) and 1-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (6.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
